How to analyze the situation of China's steel industry?

In 2021, the output of crude steel in the iron and steel industry will be high and then low, and the cumulative reduction will be year-on-year. In the first half of 2021, iron ore prices continued to soar, and then oscillated and fell in the second half. In 2021, the price of steel will fluctuate upward, and the fourth quarter will start to adjust to a high level. In 2021, my country's total steel exports will be higher than in 2020, and will fall month by month in the second half of the year. Affected by factors such as the overall improvement of the national economy and the rise in global commodity prices, the benefits of the steel industry in 2021 will show a trend of high and then low, and the benefits will be the highest in history. The data shows that in 2021, the cumulative operating income of my country's key large and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises is 6.93 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.7%; the total cumulative profit is 352.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59.7%, a record high; the sales profit rate will reach 5.08%, compared with 2020. An increase of 0.85 percentage points.

In 2022, the macro policy requires "steady words to take the lead and seek progress while maintaining stability", and the domestic steel market consumption will maintain a steady growth trend. A person from the China Iron and Steel Association pointed out that the price of raw materials fluctuated at a high level, and the production of steel products continued to be high-cost.

A person from the China Iron and Steel Association said that the release of my country's steel output in 2022 will still be subject to certain restrictions. It is expected that my country's crude steel output in 2022 will be basically the same as that in 2021. Taking into account factors such as the staggered production in autumn and winter in the first quarter, the annual output may show a trend of low before and then high.

In 2022, steel exports will decline year-on-year, while imports will remain relatively high. It is estimated that in 2022, my country's steel exports will be about 60 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 10%; steel imports will be about 14.5 million tons, basically the same year-on-year. my country has established relatively stable steel billet import channels in Southeast Asia, the Middle East and other regions through international steel production capacity cooperation and other means, which will support the high level of my country's steel billet imports. It is estimated that my country's steel billet imports will be around 15 million tons in 2022, an increase of about 9.3% over 2021.

To sum up, in 2022, my country's steel production will be low and then high, market demand will be high and then low, the high point of steel prices will appear in the first half of the year, and the second half of the year will be dominated by oscillating adjustments. The average price of ordinary steel throughout the year will be lower than 2021.